Path at risk
Latest news on the ‘99942 Apophis’ Asteroid that was predicted to be on a near collision or ’swipe’ course with earth is back on track. The 99942 Apophis’s asteroid’s threat has not disappeared but seems to have newly emerged in the most recent NASA reports in this year - even a competition was held to design an unmanned space probe to ’shadow’ 99942 Apophis in order to figure out just what Apophis might do or is ‘thinking’ to do.
99942 Apophis, having been relegated to a 0 in 10 on the Torino scale threat with a 1 in 45,000 chance of impact on earth, is still held to be the same:
On April 16, 2008, NASA News Release 08-103 reaffirmed that its estimation of a 1 in 45,000 chance of impact in 2036 remains valid.
Note that no mention was made on whether or not the Torino scale was increased or remains the same as well.
As part of an effort to develop viable deflection strategies, the B612 Foundation made estimates of Apophis path if a 2036 Earth impact were to occur.
The impact result is a narrow corridor called the ‘path of risk’ which would be a few miles wide. Countries estimated to be in the direct path:
- southern Russia,
- across the north Pacific Ocean (relatively close to the coastlines of the California and Mexico), then
- right between Nicaragua and Costa Rica,
- crossing northern Colombia and
- Venezuela and over the Caribbean islands of Trinidad and Tobago,
- over the Atlantic Ocean to the west coast of Africa.

- Asteroid Size: 270 meters to 350 meters wide
- Asteroid Weight: 200 billion tonnes
- Asteroid Speed: 50,000 KM per hour
- What you will see: in its fly-by - heated up and glowing by atmospheric particles of soil and light, Apophis’ size will appear to be approximately ten to twelve times larger than the moon.
- Expected fly-by distance from earth in 2029: 32,500 KM
- Expected Energy Release if impact occurs in 2036: 65,000 Hiroshima bombs





























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2 comments:
Thanks for the info on Apophis -- do we know how far away it is right now? Has anyone looked into things that can influence its course -- impact of space debris, sundry gravitational forces?
Bruce
Hi Bruce
I hope Nasa is tracking this rock. whaha
Links:
http://search.nasa.gov/search/search.jsp?nasaInclude=99942+Apophis
This is really scary!!
Muriel
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